Life at 1.5+ degrees of warming (but there's still hope)

We are officially out of time to prevent hitting 1.5 degrees.

Earlier last week, the World Meteorological Organization said we’re going to hit 1.5 degrees of global heating by 2027 - which is two years away. No more is it something we didn’t really have to worry about until 2040, which used to be the best guess. But we’ve sped that up, and now it’s two years.

So I thought we’d have an episode about what that really means. Because what actually changes at 1.5 degrees? And what happens if we go beyond that?
If you prefer to listen, the podcast is here.

This One Might Be a Little Grim

Kia ora, I’m Brianne, and welcome back to the pod.

I’m going to try and make this a little less apocalyptic-sounding with my delightful dark humour - but this might be a bit of a harsh episode. If you’re already struggling with eco-anxiety, or perhaps you’re listening with young kids, this may not be the one for you.

Make no mistake - I’m not being dramatic just for the sake of it. This is just the reality of what we are sprinting headlong towards.

The Reality You Deserve to Know

In the Microgreens episode later this week, I’m also going to chat through some of the climate change myths that you’ve probably come up against online - from the more realistic-sounding to the totally bonkers one I saw the other day.

And of course, if you enjoy banging your head up against the wall, how you can actually talk to a climate change denier - although I have a new name for them. (Spoiler alert: I don’t actually think you should waste your time talking to them because you will never convince them.)

But today we’re getting a bit grim.

The Uninhabitable Earth

I read a book called The Uninhabitable Earth, and I don’t really recommend it - it depressed me for weeks. But it was a good insight into the realities that so many people talking about climate change don’t talk about. Because when you freak people out, they’re actually less likely to do anything.

But I do think it’s important we have an understanding of what we’re actually up against. You deserve to know what is likely to happen and when - because you need to know what you can do about it. And there is one thing more important than anything else - and we will get to that.

What 1.5 Degrees Really Means

If we start with the basics: 1.5 degrees of global heating is what we’ve been talking about for, well, decades. It’s been sort of the public limit, what we consider a "safe" limit.

But to clarify: it’s not a safe limit. It’s actually a lot of change. Even though 1.5 degrees doesn’t sound like a lot - we’ll get to why it is.

1.5 degrees was singled out because it’s the point scientists thought we might be able to stop temperature increase at, if we got our act together. We didn’t do that.

The Trajectory We’re Actually On

But it didn’t mean that nothing would change at that point - because loads will. And already, loads has.

We have not stopped it at 1.5 degrees. Our current trajectory is expected to get us to 2.7 degrees by 2100 - which is 75 years away. Some of you listening may well still be alive then.

And I know it seems small, but the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees is genuinely massive. Like, entire-countries-underwater massive. 2.7 degrees doesn’t even bear thinking about.

Why Does So Little Warming Matter So Much?

It seems so small - how can such little change cause so much havoc? That’s a great question, so let’s start there.

When you hear “1.5 degrees,” it sounds like the kind of thing you wouldn’t even notice in your living room, right? If you turn your heater down from 21 to 19.5, it’s not super noticeable. So why is everyone so wound up about it?

The difference is: this is the average temperature of the entire planet. So it’s the air, land, sea, and ice averaged together over time.

The Energy We’re Adding

A one-degree rise in the average means that Earth is absorbing an extra 0.5 to 1 watt of energy per square metre of surface.

Does that mean anything to you?

No - it didn’t to me either. I don’t speak watts.

But it also doesn’t sound like a great deal, right? But across the entire planet, it adds about 15 zettajoules. (Which probably isn’t a word you’ve come across - I certainly hadn’t.)

That’s about 400 million, million, million, million joules - or 400,000 trillion, trillion joules, if you prefer the long way around. That’s a 4 followed by 23 zeros. And that’s extra energy, every year.

What That Energy Does

Most of that goes into the oceans. That’s about 25 times the amount of energy New Zealand uses annually - every single year.

And that extra energy:

• Turbocharges and increases the number of storms
• Dries out forests
• Melts ice
• Leads to more wildfires
• Shifts entire weather systems

And that’s just one degree.

The Scale Is Hard to Comprehend

It’s really hard to get this kind of scale across, because it’s just not something that human brains are particularly good at envisaging.

For every degree of warming, the atmosphere holds about 7% more water vapour. That means heavier rainfall when it does rain, and faster drying when it doesn’t - somewhat paradoxically.

That’s how you get both worse floods and worse droughts. More evaporation means the soil dries out faster.

The Oceans Are Wearing the Brunt

So far, our oceans have worn the brunt of this warming, as we know. Unfortunately, warmer oceans typically fuel more intense storms. We’ve seen that.

It’s why meteorologists are now talking about adding a next grade to the hurricane grading system. It’s why they’re talking about hypercanes - which is really quite dramatic-sounding and scary.

Averages Hide Extremes

That number - that one-degree global average increase - hides really big extremes. Some places are going to get scorched, whilst others are soaked.

In 2023, Phoenix, Arizona had 31 consecutive days over 43 degrees. People literally got burns from touching roads and pavements.

In the same year, parts of northern Italy saw more rainfall in two days than they normally get in three months. Those floods destroyed homes, roads, crops.

The Arctic and the Vicious Feedback Loops

The Arctic is heating four times faster than the global average. Obviously, we know that’s incredibly sad for polar bears - but it’s also melting permafrost (which is, you know, frost that is supposed to be permanent - hence the name).

That’s releasing loads and loads of methane - a terrifyingly powerful greenhouse gas, 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide in the short term.

The hotter it gets, the hotter it gets faster. Which seems very bloody unfair.

The Albedo Effect & Tipping Points

All of these changes mess with the planet’s natural feedback loops.

There’s something called the albedo effect:

The ice at the poles is white and reflects sunlight, which helps keep the temperature cooler. As that ice melts, the darker ocean absorbs more heat instead of reflecting it -which leads to more melting.

That’s another vicious cycle of warming.

Forests that once sucked in carbon get so heat-stressed they start releasing it - so we have more carbon in the atmosphere.

These are called tipping points. And there are many, many more of them - but none of them are good.

Ultimately, it might sound like very little - but one or two degrees is earth-changing.

Where We Are Today

Now that you’ve got a better understanding of why this matters, let’s look at where we are today.

We’re currently sitting at about 1.2 to 1.3 degrees of global heating.

Aotearoa’s Reality: Auckland Floods & Cyclone Gabrielle

In Aotearoa, you might remember the Auckland floods of 2023. I certainly do because I was there. I had a bunch of my team members up there, and we were trying to get home. We were actually on the plane when they closed the airport due to flooding.

That storm absolutely smashed rainfall records. I have never seen rain like it - even in tropical areas. It was ridiculous. I was watching water rise up the sides of the airport walls as we sat there. It was mad.

The city got a month’s worth of rain in about 3 or 4 hours.

Then Cyclone Gabrielle hit just a couple of weeks later. That was horrific. It compounded the damage with really severe winds, more rain, massive storm surges - whole communities were without power for months.

The Second Highest Insured Losses

I don’t need to belabour the point because I’m sure you all saw the horrific images in the news. It caused billions of dollars in damage and ended lives.

In fact, we had the second highest insured losses from climate disasters in 2023 - right after the USA. Think about the difference in size between the two countries.

That’s not because Aotearoa is the second worst place to be long-term - we’re actually considered relatively resilient in the big picture, which is great news for us, I guess. But in 2023, we got slammed. Two extreme weather disasters in two weeks.

Australia’s Climate Whiplash

Australia is the Western country expected to be hit hardest first by climate change - which probably surprises no one.

They’ve just gone through a kind of climate whiplash. After years of Black Summer bushfires and heatwaves, they’ve swung to record-breaking floods in places like Lismore:

People had to be rescued from rooftops twice in one year.

And then - back into the heat.

Pakistan: A Third of the Country Underwater

In Pakistan, back in 2022, a third of the entire country was underwater.

A third.

33 million people were affected. Entire villages were swept away.

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group found that climate change made the extreme rainfall there up to 50% more intense.

“But Extreme Weather Happens All the Time”

Yes - extreme weather absolutely happens all the time. But the frequency, intensity, and cost of these events is skyrocketing.

Data shows that Aotearoa New Zealand has had almost twice the number of extreme rainfall events in the last decade compared to the 1960s.

In Australia, the number of extreme heat days has doubled since 1950.

What used to be once-in-a-century floods are now once-a-decade. That’s not normal weather variation - that’s a system changing.

It’s Not Just About Humans

And it’s not exactly specific to us humans and what we notice either - although that’s how it’s usually communicated because that’s how you get people to care.

Over 90% of the Great Barrier Reef has experienced bleaching in the last decade.

2022 marked the first mass bleaching during a La Niña year.

La Niña Should Have Been Cooler

You’ve probably heard of La Niña or El Niño.

La Niña usually brings cooler waters.

So to have a mass bleaching event during a La Niña cycle? That’s record-breaking - and not a record we want.

This year so far, we’ve had one of the worst bleaching events of all time - affecting over 80% of coral reefs globally.

Heartbreakingly, 90% of coral reefs are expected to die off by 1.5 degrees. And now we know that’s not as far away as we thought. We’ve already lost 50% of reefs - which most people aren’t even aware of.

Since about 25% of the ocean depends on coral reefs, that’s kind of… problematic.

More Jellyfish, Less Sharks (Worse Than You Think)

On a purely selfish note, a warmer ocean means more freaking jellyfish - which everyone knows are the true bastards of the sea and way scarier than sharks.

The Amazon: From Carbon Sink to Carbon Source

The Amazon rainforest — once one of the world’s most powerful carbon sinks - is actually starting to emit more carbon than it absorbs in some areas due to heat, drought and deforestation.

Antarctica: Emperor Penguins in Trouble

In Antarctica, emperor penguin colonies are seeing massive chick die-offs because the sea ice they need to survive is forming too late or breaking up too early. That’s a clear sign that the polar ecosystems are starting to change.

This Is Already Happening - Before 1.5 Degrees

So we are already living with this. This has already happened - and we haven’t even hit 1.5 degrees yet.

At 1.5 degrees, in just a couple of years, we’re looking at a 0.2 degree increase. That tiny increase means:

A lot more energy added

Roughly 200 billion extra tonnes of water vapour swirling around in the atmosphere

And water vapour is another greenhouse gas too - so we are adding further to the problem.

The Lag Effect: Why 1.5 Is Baked In

If I believed in a god, I’d think she had a really twisted sense of humour.

But to be clear: this 1.5 degrees is baked in - if you’ll pardon a pretty clumsy pun.

The warming we’re seeing now is from emissions that happened over the last couple of decades. Greenhouse gases linger in the atmosphere for decades. Some gases for a shorter period, some longer:

CO₂ lasts a while.

Methane dissipates in a couple of decades.

That means there’s a lag between what we emit and how hot things get.

We’re not going to stay at 1.5 for very long.

These Aren’t Guesses - This Is Physics

And these aren’t guesses. This isn’t something someone’s pulled together in some hyper-cynical mode. This is:

Peer-reviewed modelling. Based on physics, chemistry, and actual observed changes.

This is what happens if we don’t change course.

We Can Prevent 2 Degrees - But We’re Not On Track

We can prevent 2 degrees. And we can certainly prevent 2.7.

But we could hit 2 degrees by the next decade - the 2030s - if we don’t get our shit together. And that’s straight from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Sixth Assessment Report.

What Happens at 2 Degrees?

At 2 degrees, those tipping points I mentioned earlier really start to come into play.

A very big one is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It could reach a point of no return -basically, where it collapses - committing us to between 3 to 5 metres of sea level rise.

West Antarctica: Collapse As Early As 2040

This is actually what Patrick Gower was talking about on the pod about six months ago, when he did that documentary down in Antarctica.

Some studies suggest that this collapse could start to happen as early as 2040, with a 4-metre rise by the end of this century.

4 metres is a lot. You think how many countries that will make uninhabitable.

Entire Nations at Risk

Places like:

Suva in Fiji anf Nuku'alofa in Tonga will become uninhabitable within the next two to three decades as sea levels rise even as little as 30 to 50 centimetres.

That means:

Storm surges intensify

Storms intensify

Those places become uninhabitable

Tuvalu and Kiribati? They’re already buying land in other countries because they know their country doesn’t have much of a future left.

The Pacific Islands, in general, are already having to adapt or relocate. The World Bank has said that climate migration in the Pacific has, at this point, become unavoidable.

Imagine If It Were You

Just think for a minute if you knew that where you were sitting right now would soon be underwater - or so close to underwater that the water table made living there impossible.

Asia’s Major Cities Are Next

By the 2040s and 50s, cities like Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh, and Jakarta (which is sinking as well as flooding - again, seems very unfair) will face chronic flooding.

Indonesia is already planning to move its capital of Jakarta to the island of Borneo. That’s good forward-thinking (which is unusual from a government), but they are destroying an incredibly ancient and important ecosystem to do it.

Aotearoa’s Future: Coastal Suburbs Underwater

Wellington and Auckland - a bit closer to home - will see some of their coastal suburbs permanently underwater as early as the 2060s.

Sea levels around Aotearoa will actually rise up to twice the global average in some areas due to something called land subsidence.

In the Far North, low-lying coastal roads and marae are already experiencing regular inundation.

Ōtepoti (South Dunedin) is particularly at risk - like much of Ōtautahi Christchurch.

It’s all built on reclaimed swamp - which was a very interesting life choice - and it could face chronic flooding within the next few decades.

Let’s be honest - we already face flooding. I can’t wait for that to get worse.

Australia’s Coastal Cities at Risk Too

Across the Tasman:

Sydney and Melbourne - massive population centres - have been built along flood-prone rivers and coasts.

By 2100, some of those areas will be completely underwater.

The Global Scale of Displacement

I could go on - but I won’t because I think we’re all depressed enough.

Globally, over 800 million people live in low elevation coastal zones. Many in those places have the fewest resources to adapt.

Even moderate sea level rise will:

• Force massive relocation
• Reshape economies
• Destroy hundreds of billions in infrastructure
• Greenland: The Melting Giant

Just a smidge more bad news: the projections don’t actually include the really big one.

Parts of the Greenland ice sheet are already considered past the point of no return. If that fully melts, some models are projecting up to seven metres of sea level rise.

That changes the game quite considerably.

Deadly Heat at 2 Degrees

It’s not just sea level rise. Deadly heat will become common at 2 degrees.

A 2021 study showed that with 2 degrees of warming, about one billion people will face extreme heat stress annually.

50 Degrees Celsius: A New Normal

In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology has already added new colours to weather maps to represent temperatures above 50 degrees. That’s how frequently it’s happening.

That’s a number that Perth and parts of the Northern Territory will hit regularly.

I cannot imagine coping with 50 degrees. I barely cope with 30.

If you have access to reliable energy and air conditioning, you’ll be okay. But so many do not - and that includes, of course, all the wildlife out there.

Aotearoa’s Changing Weather Patterns

At 2 degrees, Aotearoa will feel very different - and not evenly across the country.

In Te Tai Tokerau (Northland):

• More intense rainfall
• More flash floods
• More slips

In Tāmaki Makaurau (Auckland):

• Hotter, more humid summers
• More downpours
• More storm-related flooding

In the West:

• Heavier rainfall
• Stronger storms

In the Southern Alps:

• More rain
• Less snow
• More erosion
• More flooding
• More pressure on hydro systems

The East Coast Swings the Other Way

If you’re on the East Coast - Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Marlborough, Canterbury - we’re projected to get significantly drier.

According to NIWA projections:

Annual rainfall could decrease by up to 15% to 30% in parts of Canterbury and Marlborough by the 2040s.

Longer, harsher droughts.

More Floods and More Droughts

You might be thinking:

“How can you have less rain, but more flooding?”

I’ll get a climatologist on at some point to explain this properly, but trust me - you can.

We’re already seeing it.

The Ripple Effects: Health, Food & Migration

On top of everything else, these changes will have massive ramifications for:

• Human health
• Supply chains
• Farming
• Migration

I can’t cover them all, but let’s speed through the top notes.

Crop Yields Decline Sharply

At 2 degrees, crop yields will drop:

• Maize (corn): down by ~14%
• Wheat: down by ~8%
• Rice: down by ~6%

(According to the IPCC.)

Those numbers might sound small - they’re not.

This could push an additional 189 million people into food insecurity by 2050 (according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization). That’s on top of the 735 million people already going hungry right now.

Less Nutrition in Crops

And - just to twist the knife - crops are actually less nutritionally dense when grown in warmer, CO₂-saturated air.

So all those people who say “oh yeah but plants love CO₂”?

No. No, they don’t.

(But more on that in the Microgreens episode.)

Heat-Related Illnesses Rise Sharply

At 2 degrees, we’re looking at a major increase in heat-related illnesses:

• Heat exhaustion
• Dehydration
• Heat stroke (which kills the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing conditions)

New Diseases Moving Into Aotearoa

Aotearoa might even start seeing more outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue fever, because those warmer, wetter conditions create a friendlier environment for insects we really don’t want.

We’re already seeing this globally:

In the US, ticks and mosquitoes are moving into new areas where they’ve never been before - and they’re bringing disease with them.

Air Quality Declines Too

Let’s not forget that air pollution already kills about 8 million people every year. But those hotter, drier conditions mean:

• More wildfires
• More smoke

If you lived in Aotearoa just a few years ago, you might remember:

The smoke that drifted across the Tasman from Australia’s fires

It was astonishing - and horrifying.

The Economic Toll Will Be Brutal

And of course, you can’t talk about any of this without talking about the economy - because for some people, that’s all that matters. And I get it.

But the economic toll is going to be brutal. And this is another reason I cannot understand the apathy displayed by politicians or businesspeople who claim to be so focused on the economy.

• The damage to infrastructure from floods and storms
• Insurance premiums skyrocketing (or disappearing altogether, because insurance companies are already saying: “No, we’re not going to insure this area anymore”
• Reduced productivity because heat will make outdoor work unsafe
• Huge hits to tourism, agriculture, fisheries - all massive sectors here

Climate Change Is Not Just an Environmental Issue

Climate change is so far from being just an environmental issue, it’s not funny.

And of course, it will lead to an increase in extinctions - further worsening the biodiversity crisis (which is another issue for another episode, but definitely not good).

3 Degrees: The Future We Really Don’t Want

I’m actually not going to belabour the issues of 3 degrees because - frankly - it’s not fun.

But just as a reminder:

• If we don’t do anything, if we stay on our current path, we will hit 2.7 degrees by 2100.
• At 1.5 degrees, 90% of the world’s coral reefs are gone.
• At 2 degrees, it’s closer to 99% - even with all the wonderful people doing coral gardening, they just can’t keep up.

The ocean gets hotter, more acidic, and reefs simply can’t survive. That collapse affects:

• Breeding grounds
• Shelter
• Feeding systems
• For over 1 million species.
• In dollar terms, coral reefs have an estimated economic value of about $10 trillion annually.

Agriculture Becomes Brutal

At 3 degrees:

Massive losses in crop productivity across Africa, Southern Europe, Australia, and parts of South America

The UN’s World Food Programme projects that under a 3-degree scenario, up to 600 million more people will face chronic hunger.

(That’s on top of those already experiencing it at 2 degrees.)

It’s a staggering escalation that’s hard for us to even comprehend.

Disease Spreads Further and Faster

I think we underestimate the risks here because we’re so safe down here. It’s weird -Aotearoa feels like the lifeboat of the world.

We hardly have any parasites

Very few insects that spread truly terrifying diseases

But just across the water, Australia has things like Hendra virus, which is rare but absolutely terrifying - and that could be us.

At 3 degrees, mosquito-borne diseases like:

Dengue, Yellow fever (which is terrifying), and Malaria will move into places they’ve never been before. You cannot underestimate the misery and death they already cause - let alone what happens as temperatures rise.

Heat Stress Hits More People

More heat stress means higher death rates - and it doesn’t just hit the young and elderly anymore. Middle-aged, otherwise healthy people will start being affected too.

Climate Migration Becomes Global Norm

Climate migration becomes the norm:

1 billion people may have to move this century due to sea level rise, heat, and resource scarcity.

The Global Economic Impact

Climate change could reduce global GDP by more than 20% by 2100 - that translates to about $38 trillion USD per year, based on current economic projections.

The Cost of Action vs. Inaction

And yet - estimates from the International Energy Agency suggest that decarbonising the world economy would cost between $4 to $9 trillion USD per year.

So yes, action is expensive - but doing nothing costs way, way, way more.

How is it that people who are supposedly "focused on the economy" can be so bad at basic finance? Especially when we’re still subsidising fossil fuel companies to the tune of about $7 trillion USD every year.

(That’s not all cash subsidies - a lot of that’s indirect - but maybe we start looking at that.)

Climate Change Is Deeply Unjust

The worst losses will hit countries in the tropics and the global south because climate change is profoundly unjust:

Those who’ve contributed the least are impacted the most.

And they have the least resource to cope with it.

But even so - no economy is safe.

We’re Not Even Counting the Worst Parts

And that’s not even accounting for:

• The cost of mass migration
• Conflict over resources (wars will break out)
• Healthcare burdens

Let’s Stop There - But Not Without Hope

I’m actually going to stop there because that was rough.

But I think it’s really important to close this with a bit of hope. And I actually don’t think this will be our future.

Yes, we’re going to hit 1.5.

Yes, that’s not awesome.

But I don’t think we’ll hit 2.7.

We are on track to - but things are happening. Countries are changing. And despite the many tumultuous things going on in the world - and countries run by illiterate children making massive changes based on ignorance and not science - I still believe we’ll turn it around.

Some Actual Progress

And I have reason to believe that:

China

• Continually finger-pointed as the biggest problem.
• Installed more solar capacity in the last year than the entire rest of the world combined.

The EU

• Legally binding climate targets.
• Aiming for a 55% emissions cut by 2030.

The UK

• Reduced emissions by over 40% since 1990 - pretty bloody impressive (though progress is stalling).

Australia

• Emissions have finally started falling slightly after years of inaction.
• States like South Australia now run on over 70% renewables - though their politicians continue to make idiotic decisions.

Africa

• Countries like Kenya investing heavily in geothermal and solar - despite facing the worst impacts and having the fewest resources.

India

• The world’s third largest emitter.
• Aggressively expanding renewable energy.
• Aiming for 500 gigawatts by 2030 - though still building some new coal plants to meet growing energy demand.

The USA: Both Problem & Solution

• The USA remains one of the biggest contributors - both to emissions and, somewhat ironically, to climate solutions.
• Under the Biden administration, climate investments surged.
• But with Trump returning to office, deregulation has already begun:
• Climate rules rolled back
• Fossil fuel projects fast-tracked
• Proposals to mine the seabed (which is one of the stupidest ideas we’ve ever had)
• Withdrawal from agreements like the Paris Agreement
• Honestly, I’m not going to go further into the USA - this episode is already dark enough.

Canada & Russia: No Surprises

Canada

• Despite its progressive reputation, still heavily invested in oil and gas.
• It’s the fourth largest oil producer in the world.

Russia

• Total mess.
• Doubling down on fossil fuel exports.
• Showing very little intention of decarbonising.
• Huge methane risks from thawing permafrost - which Moscow is basically ignoring.

The Gap Between Ambition and Action

There are plenty of pledges. There’s actually quite a bit more progress than you might expect.

BUT - there’s still a huge gap between ambition and action.

Worst Case Scenario: 4.3 Degrees

If we keep doing what we’re doing right now - or worse, if we backslide - we’re not looking at 2.7 degrees.

We’re looking at 4.3 degrees of warming by 2100.

That’s what happens in a worst-case scenario if:

Feedback loops kick in. Mitigation efforts fail.

At 4.3 Degrees: A World Almost Unrecognisable

At that level, the world is almost unrecognisable:

• Massive crop failures
• Global food systems in collapse
• Mass extinctions
• Half the population facing deadly heat a month at a time
• Whole regions uninhabitable

But I Still Have Faith

And yet - I absolutely have enough faith in us (despite evidence to the contrary at times) that we will not let it get that bad.

The Single Most Powerful Thing You Can Do

So let’s end on this:

What’s the single most powerful thing you can do? It’s actually the simplest:

Talk about it.

Talk about climate change out loud to:

• Your friends
• Your whānau
• Your climate change-denying uncle
• Your boss

We All Think No One Else Cares - But We’re Wrong

Most people are worried.

Surveys across 60+ countries show that 85% of people are concerned about climate change and want more done. But weirdly, we all think that no one else is as concerned as we are - so we don’t talk about it.

That silence is what we have to break.

Talking about it:

• Normalises the conversation
• Builds pressure
• Creates demand
• Politicians - by and large - care about power and getting re-elected. They won’t act unless they know that people expect and demand it.

That’s why:

• Protest works
• Turning up matters
• Calling, emailing, and lobbying your local MP actually does have an impact

And that applies to everything - not just climate change.

When you see:

• Injustice
• Genocide
• Indigenous rights being trampled
• Protest. Turn up. Call. Email.

It truly makes a difference.

We’ve seen that very recently here in Aotearoa with the Treaty Bill.

I have never been so - I don’t know if proud is the word - but so fucking delighted to see how many people turned out to fight something they knew was fundamentally wrong.

It shows you the power people have.

Climate scientist Catherine Hayhoe is one of the best voices in this space. She says:

The single most important thing you can do about climate change is to talk about it.

Yes - individual actions help too. But we need systemic change. And I believe one comes from the other.

What You Can Actually Do

According to Project Drawdown (which, in my opinion, is the best resource on climate change action), here’s what you can do:

1️⃣ Stop Wasting Food

This is the single biggest thing you can do.

If food waste were a country, it would be the third largest emitter.

Supporting food rescue organisations has a surprisingly huge impact.

2️⃣ Shift to a Plant-Rich Diet

This doesn’t mean you have to go vegan.

Just eat more plants.

Maybe start with Meat-Free Mondays.

Beans and lentils are delicious - and very good for you.

3️⃣ Install Rooftop Solar (If You Can)

Or get your employer to look at it.

4️⃣ Switch to Clean Electricity Providers

There are a few here in Aotearoa.

5️⃣ Improve Home Insulation

Use less energy.

Use energy-efficient appliances.

6️⃣ Transport

Drive an electric car if you can.

If not, use public transport or cycle in the meantime.

7️⃣ Compost Your Food Scraps

8️⃣ Support Reforestation & Ecosystem Restoration Projects

Some Actions Cost Money - But Some Don’t

A lot of those things I just mentioned cost money - and I fully appreciate that.

But:

The most impactful one (food waste) saves you money.

And some others cost you nothing and make a massive difference.

9️⃣ Vote For People Who Understand Science

Take recommendations from experts - which is not this government.

The number of reports they’ve just blatantly ignored - some of which they commissioned themselves - is astonishing.

Vote for:

• People who understand science.
• People who follow knowledge.
• People who aren’t just shills for fossil fuel and fishery lobbies.

🔟 Collective Power

The real power is collective:

• Support community energy schemes (Rewiring Aotearoa is a brilliant resource - optimism personified - and proof that Aotearoa can electrify pretty easily).
• Join a climate group.
• Push your workplace to divest from fossil fuels.
• Check where your KiwiSaver is invested - if it’s in fossil fuels, switch to something like Pathfinder or Simplicity.
• Same thing with your bank - who do they invest in?

We Can Still Do This

According to Project Drawdown:

We can absolutely slash emissions fast enough to stay under 2 degrees - or pretty damn close to it. And every single half degree we avoid saves lives, species, and futures.

We Are Not Doomed - But We Are Out of Time

We are not doomed.

But we are out of time for dicking about.

And talking about it? Well - that’s where it starts.

That’s a Wrap (For Now)

Well, I’m depressed now.

It’s been a pretty dark episode - but the truth is a little bit dark.

But:

There’s so much worth fighting for.

And I’m going to give you some of those tools in the Microgreens episode later this week:

Answers to the misinformation out there about climate change

How to talk to those people in your life who still think climate change is a hoax (if you can be bothered - because of course you’ve got one, we all do - such fun.)

Kia ora kaitiaki - look after yourself, and I’ll see you next time.

Episode Sources

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update 2024

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years

NASA Earth Observatory – “Earth Is Storing More Heat” (summary of Cheng et al. 2023 Earth-energy-imbalance work)

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152431/earth-is-storing-more-heat

von Schuckmann, K. et al. 2023 – “Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?” Earth System Science Data

https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023

Cheng, L. et al. 2023 – “Record-setting ocean heat content and Earth system imbalance in 2023.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2

Dessler, A. E. 2021 – “Water-vapour feedback.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-064024

Copernicus Emergency Management Service – Rapid Mapping EMERG0325, Emilia-Romagna Floods (2023)

https://rapidmapping.emergency.copernicus.eu/EMSR632

Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) – State of the Climate 2022

https://www.csiro.au/state-of-the-climate

NIWA – Climate-change projections and extreme-rainfall trends for New Zealand (2024 update)

https://niwa.co.nz/climate/research-projects/climate-change/extreme-weather

NOAA Coral Reef Watch – Global Coral Bleaching Event Status Update, April 2024

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov

Gatti, L. V. et al. 2021 – “Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.” Nature 595:388–393

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6

Trathan, P. N. et al. 2023 – “Climate-driven population decline of emperor penguins.” Communications Earth & Environment 4:148

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00772-3

Met Office (UK) – “One billion people face deadly heat stress at 2 °C warming.” Press release, Oct 2021

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/cop26-heat-stress

IPCC – Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018), Chapter 3

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

IPCC – Sixth Assessment Report Synthesis (2023)

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/synthesis-report/

University of New South Wales – West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse threshold study (2022)

https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-may-have-passed-point-no-return

Project Drawdown – “The Powerful Role of Household Actions in Solving Climate Change” (2023)

https://drawdown.org/insights/the-powerful-role-of-household-actions-in-solving-climate-change

FAO – “Climate change could push 183 million more people into hunger by 2050.” News release, Sept 2021

https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/climate-change-could-push-183-million-more-people-to-hunger/en

World Food Programme – “What if the world warms 3 °C? Hunger and the climate crisis.” 2022

https://www.wfp.org/stories/what-if-world-warms-3-degrees-hunger-and-climate-crisis

International Energy Agency – Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector (2024 update)

https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

Climate Action Tracker – Current Policy Projections (CAT Thermometer)

https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/

World Weather Attribution – Pakistan 2022 Floods Rapid Attribution Study

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-likely-increased-extreme-rainfall-during-2022-pakistan-floods/

World Economic Forum – “What would a worst-case climate scenario look like?” 2020

https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/09/the-worst-case-climate-change-scenario-could-look-like-this-we-need-to-avert-it/

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